13 Million Rounds, 1 500 Lives: A Day on Ukraine’s Front | 1being

13 Million Rounds, 1 500 Lives: A Day on Ukraine’s Front | 1being

13 Million Rounds, 1 500 Lives: A Day on Ukraine’s Front Lines

Official propaganda wants you to believe fatalities are 10x lower than reality. Order-of-magnitude look at Ukraine’s front-line combat: ~13 M small-arms rounds, 5 450 artillery shells, 400 drone strikes, and around 1 485 fatalities daily.

Below is the full, step‑by‑step logic and all the key numbers that fed into our “order‑of‑magnitude” daily totals. All figures are rounded to two‑significant‑figures where sensible.

A. Artillery

Parameter Assumption Calculation
Russian annual shell production 2 000 000 shells/year
Ukraine annual shell production 1 000 000 shells/year
Days per year 365
Russian shells/day available 2 000 000 ÷ 365 ≈ 5 480 shells/day
Ukraine shells/day available 1 000 000 ÷ 365 ≈ 2 740 shells/day
% of daily output fired at front Russia: 70 %  Ukraine: 60 %
Russian front usage 5 480 × 0.70 ≈ 3 800 shells/day
Ukraine front usage 2 740 × 0.60 ≈ 1 650 shells/day
Total shells fired/day 3 800 + 1 650 = 5 450 shells/day
Artillery lethality ~1 fatality per 100 shells
Artillery deaths/day 5 450 ÷ 100 ≈ 55 deaths/day
• → Ukrainian killed by RU fire 55 × 0.70 ≈ 38/day split by who fired
• → Russian killed by UA fire 55 × 0.30 ≈ 17/day

B. Small‑Arms

Parameter Assumption Calculation
Front‑line troops Russia: 400 000  Ukraine: 250 000 ≈ 650 000 total
Avg. rifle rounds fired/day ~20 rounds per soldier
Russian rounds/day 400 000 × 20 = 8 000 000 rounds
Ukraine rounds/day 250 000 × 20 = 5 000 000 rounds
Total rifle rounds/day 13 000 000 rounds
Lethality rate ~0.01 % of rounds fired result in a fatality (1 × 10⁻⁴)
Small‑arms deaths/day 13 000 000 × 0.0001 = 1 300 deaths/day
• → Ukrainian killed by RU fire 8 000 000 ÷ 13 000 000 ≈ 61 % ⇒ 0.61 × 1 300 ≈ 793/day split by who fired
• → Russian killed by UA fire 5 000 000 ÷ 13 000 000 ≈ 39 % ⇒ 0.39 × 1 300 ≈ 507/day

C. Drones

C.1 Tactical (front‑line) UAVs

Parameter Ukraine Russia
Key types Switchblade 300; Punisher FPVs; PD‑1; TB 2 (close‑support) Orlan‑10; Lancet‑1/3; Geran‑2; improvised FPVs
Inventory at front ~4 000–5 000 units ~6 000–8 000 units
Sorties per day ~200 launches/day ~200 launches/day
Kill‑rate per sortie ~0.3 fatalities/sortie ~0.3 fatalities/sortie
Tactical‑drone deaths/day (200 + 200) × 0.3 = 120 deaths/day
• → Ukrainian killed by RU drones 200 × 0.3 = 60/day split evenly by sorties
• → Russian killed by UA drones 200 × 0.3 = 60/day

C.2 Long‑Range Loiterers

Parameter Ukraine Russia
Key types TB 2 (~100 left); Phoenix Ghost; Warmate Shahed‑136/Geran‑2; Lancet‑3
Total stock ~300–600 units ~20 000–40 000 units
Launches per day ~15/day ~60/day
Kill‑rate per launch ~0.13 fatalities/launch ~0.13 fatalities/launch
Long‑range‑drone deaths/day (15 + 60) × 0.13 ≈ 10/day
• → Ukrainian killed by RU loiterers 60 × 0.13 ≈ 8/day split by launch volume
• → Russian killed by UA loiterers 15 × 0.13 ≈ 2/day

D. Summary Table

Cause Total/day Ukraine KIA Russia KIA
Small‑arms 1 300 793 507
Artillery 55 38 17
Tactical drones 120 60 60
Long‑range drones 10 8 2
––––––––––––––––––––––– 1 485 899 586
  • ≈ 1 485 total combat deaths per day
  • Ukraine loses ≈ 900/day; Russia loses ≈ 590/day

All numbers are built from transparent production, consumption, stock, sortie‑rate and lethality assumptions—not from any single external source or “propaganda” report.