Timeline (2024-2100) with Historical Parallels | 1being

Timeline (2024-2100) with Historical Parallels | 1being

Timeline (2024-2100) with Historical Parallels and Population Decline

1. 2024-2040: The Gradual Decline

  • Neutral/Clueless Majority:

    • Base Description: As oil reserves decline, most people continue to live their lives, unaware of the impending collapse or simply unable to comprehend its scale. Many will be preoccupied with maintaining their current lifestyles, which increasingly becomes difficult due to rising costs and shortages.
    • Historical Parallel: The Late Roman Empire serves as a historical example. Many citizens continued their lives relatively unaware of the slow collapse, with the elite retreating to rural estates (villae) as the infrastructure supporting urban life deteriorated.
    • Source: Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies discusses how complex societies, like Rome, slowly degrade as their systems become unsustainable【18†source】.

  • Service-to-Self Individuals:

    • Base Description: This group, sensing the impending chaos, begins to consolidate power, using fear and control tactics. They manipulate resources, establish private security forces, and create hierarchies, often exploiting the desperation of others.
    • Historical Parallel: During the Fall of the Western Roman Empire, opportunistic leaders, such as local warlords and military commanders, carved out territories for themselves, often exploiting the common people for personal gain.
    • Source: Jared Diamond's Collapse examines how elites may act in self-serving ways during times of resource scarcity, exacerbating societal decline【18†source】.

  • Service-to-Others Individuals:

    • Base Description: Early adopters start forming communities focused on sustainability and mutual aid. They emphasize local food production, permaculture, and alternative energy sources, preparing for the long-term impacts of energy descent.
    • Historical Parallel: The Christian Monastic Communities of the early medieval period, particularly the Benedictines, who focused on self-sufficient living, preserving knowledge, and providing charity, represent this group. Their model of communal living and resource management became a foundation for the eventual recovery of European society.
    • Source: Glenn Schwartz's After Collapse explores how communities rebuild and reorganize in the aftermath of societal breakdowns, often emphasizing cooperation and mutual aid【18†source】.

2. 2040-2060: The Collapse

  • Neutral/Clueless Majority:

    • Base Description: As oil reserves hit critical levels, widespread societal disruptions occur. Food shortages, economic crashes, and mass migrations become common. Many in this group descend into survival mode, often turning to violence out of desperation.
    • Historical Parallel: The Mayan Collapse saw large urban centers like Tikal abandoned as the majority of the population faced environmental degradation, warfare, and resource depletion, leading to a return to more basic subsistence living.
    • Source: Eric H. Cline's 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed outlines how complex societies can unravel when faced with multiple, compounding crises【18†source】.

  • Service-to-Self Individuals:

    • Base Description: These individuals rise to power in the chaos, establishing fiefdoms or warlord-controlled territories. Their control is maintained through violence, resource hoarding, and the suppression of dissent.
    • Historical Parallel: The Warlord Era in post-dynastic China (1916-1928) illustrates how, in the absence of a strong central authority, power-hungry leaders can exploit chaos, using military force to control territories and resources.
    • Source: Dmitry Orlov's The Five Stages of Collapse describes how power structures emerge and solidify during societal breakdowns, often leading to increased violence and instability【18†source】.

  • Service-to-Others Individuals:

    • Base Description: These communities become increasingly important as they provide a stable alternative to the chaos. They focus on teaching survival skills, building decentralized networks for trade and communication, and maintaining a semblance of order through cooperation and shared values.
    • Historical Parallel: The Anabaptist Communities during the Reformation, who sought to live separately from the larger society and focus on mutual aid, self-sufficiency, and peaceful coexistence, are an example of this approach during times of widespread conflict and change.
    • Source: Beyond Collapse by Ronald K. Faulseit discusses how decentralized and community-focused groups often play a crucial role in societal recovery after collapse【18†source】.

3. 2060-2100: The Transition

  • Neutral/Clueless Majority:

    • Base Description: By this stage, the clueless majority has either perished, joined one of the other factions, or lives in subsistence conditions, heavily dependent on the remaining groups for survival. With mid-latitude regions becoming uninhabitable due to extreme heat, and northern areas unable to sustain large populations without oil-based agriculture, a significant global population decline occurs, potentially mirroring the bottleneck experienced during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Populations may decrease by as much as 95-98%.
    • Historical Parallel: During the Last Glacial Maximum, human populations were drastically reduced due to extreme climate conditions, with estimates suggesting a decline of 95-98%. Populations clustered in refugia—small, habitable areas—while large parts of the planet became inhospitable. A similar scenario could unfold as global warming and resource depletion force populations to retreat to the few remaining livable areas, leading to a massive population bottleneck.
    • Source: Genetic evidence from studies of mitochondrial DNA suggests that during the LGM, human populations were reduced to a few tens of thousands of individuals, indicating a severe bottleneck akin to what might be experienced under future climate stress【18†source】.

  • Service-to-Self Individuals:

    • Base Description: Many of these power structures begin to collapse as resources dwindle further, and their exploitative practices become unsustainable. Internal conflicts and rebellion from those they oppress lead to their eventual downfall, with no stable, large-scale power emerging for decades or even centuries.
    • Historical Parallel: The Collapse of Cahokia and its aftermath represent a situation where urbanism and centralized power did not reemerge, and instead, the region transitioned to smaller, more sustainable communities like those of the Osage Nation. Similarly, Post-Roman Britain provides another example where after the collapse of a centralized authority, no large power structures emerged for an extended period, leading to a fragmented society of small kingdoms and warlords.
    • Source: Archaeological studies of Cahokia and Jared Diamond's Collapse discuss how urban centers can decline, leading to long periods where no central authority or complex society reestablishes itself【18†source】.

  • Service-to-Others Individuals:

    • Base Description: These communities begin to rebuild on a larger scale, forming the basis for a new type of society. They use the lessons learned from the collapse to avoid repeating past mistakes, focusing on small-scale, localized economies, sustainable agriculture, and renewable energy solutions that can be managed within the limits of available resources.
    • Historical Parallel: The Irish Monastic Tradition during the so-called Dark Ages played a crucial role in preserving knowledge and maintaining social order through networks of monasteries that also served as centers of learning, agriculture, and social welfare.
    • Source: How Everything Can Collapse by Pablo Servigne and Raphael Stevens discusses how small, resilient communities can provide a model for rebuilding in the wake of collapse, emphasizing the importance of sustainability, knowledge preservation, and mutual support【18†source】.

Conclusion

This timeline reflects a comprehensive and historically grounded scenario where the gradual decline of oil reserves and subsequent collapse leads to a significant population bottleneck, potentially reducing the global population by as much as 95-98%, much like what occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum. The parallels to past collapses—such as the fall of Cahokia, the Greek Dark Ages, and the collapse of the Roman Empire—illustrate how societies might fragment into smaller, more sustainable communities. While Service-to-Self power structures may initially dominate, their eventual downfall due to internal strife and resource scarcity could pave the way for Service-to-Others communities to lead the rebuilding of a new, more sustainable civilization.